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Thursday, July 08, 2004

October Suprise ...July Suprise..or both?

The New Republic has an article July Suprise, posted on it's website. Link The article was written by John B. Judis, Spencer Ackerman & Massoud Ansari. According to the article, sources who work in Pakistans Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) relate that the Bush administration is putting heavy pressure on the Pakistanis to either kill or capture High Value Targets (HVT) by the November elections. High ranking al Qaeda members , including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri are believed to be living inside of Pakistan's borders.

A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

The article details some of the recent quid pro quo's between the Bush administration, gives some of the political considerations that would compel the Bushies and Pakistan to orchestrate a "July/October Suprise and expounds on how both would benefit from such a calculated stunt.

None of these scenarios may come to pass, but does anyone familar with the machinations of the Bushies doubt they would actually try to pull this off?


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